Middle East latest: Six children killed in Israeli airstrike in Rafah, hospital says; Iraq military base explosion was 'attack' (2024)

By military analyst Sean Bell

The dust appears to be settling on the latest round of tit for tat exchanges in the Iran-Israel conflict with the risk of a regional escalation abating.

However, with both sides apparently reluctant to discuss what actually happened in the early hours of Friday morning, what impact did the Israeli military action have, and was it decisive?

Iran takes every opportunity to showcase its broad array of military equipment - whether it be tanks, missiles or fighter jets.

One of Iran's strategic priorities is to protect its nuclear programme which most military analysts believe is only a matter of weeks away from being able to develop a nuclear weapon.

Iran's military bases and specifically its nuclear development sites are protected by a complex array of layered military capability, with the outer layer including surface-to-air missile systems capable of striking targets out to 200km.

At face value these defensive capabilities appear very robust, and form the basis or Iranian military deterrence capability.

However, long-range missiles are not the only component of a credible military capability.

The first priority is to detect a target, and that requires a long-range radar.

The F-35 joint strike fighter - a central pillar of Israel's air power capability - is not invisible to radar, but does present a much smaller profile than a conventional aircraft. That means that the F-35 can get much closer to the Iranian radar before being detected which reduces the time available for the missile operators to enable a targeting solution.

Once the Iranian air defence missile has been locked onto the F-35, the Iranian radar continuously tracks the fighter to enable the missile to be launched en-route to its target.

However, at this point the F-35 uses its electronic warfare capability to confuse the radar.

Building on decades of hi-tech radar techniques developed during the Cold War and since, modern electronic warfare techniques can deceive enemy radars to create a false target - some way away from the F-35.

As the Iranian anti-aircraft missile is racing towards this "shadow", the Iranian radar is providing continuous guidance and updates to the missile system. This makes the radar vulnerable to Israeli anti-radiation missiles, which can target the radar in a passive detection mode.

The West has developed a raft of hi-tech electronic capabilities to "roll back" enemy air defence systems to enable fighter jets or missiles to target high-value targets.

Although Israel will not have had access to the very latest iteration of this decisive military capability, they will have been able to punch large holes in Iran's comprehensive but aging air defence systems.

In short, Israel would have demonstrated that despite Iran's layered military capability, all Iran's key military targets are vulnerable and within Israel's reach.

Israel has no need to advertise that message to the international community - the target audience was Iran's political leaders who were delivered a clear demonstration of Israel's military dominance.

It was little surprise therefore that Iran has sought to downplay Israel's most recent strikes, as behind the bluster of public statements Iran had been reminded of the potential repercussions should it ever consider repeating its unprecedented attack on Israel.

Satellite images following Iran's drone attack on Israel last week show repairs on a damaged Israeli desert air base.

The overall damage done to Nevatim air base in southern Israel was minor despite Iran launching hundreds of drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

Israeli air defences and fighter jets, backed by the US, the UK and neighbouring Jordan, shot down the vast majority of the incoming fire.

The satellite images were analysed by The Associated Press.

Mourners in Poland have gathered for the funeral of Damian Sobol, one of the seven aid workers for the World Central Kitchen killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza earlier this month.

Dariusz Dudek, an adviser for Polish President Andrzej Duda, attended to pay his respects for the aid worker described as "pure joy" by the WCK.

"We're saying farewell to a wonderful young man, courageous and generous activist, who followed the idea of solidarity," he said, reading a letter written by the president.

"A man who couldn't ignore the fate of those who suffer, those in need… I'd like to honour the sacrifice he made to help civilians affected by the war in Gaza."

Mr Sobol, 35, had previously worked in Greece following wildfires and in Turkey after the earthquakes there.

On "day one" of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the WCK says he volunteered to help refugees arriving in his native country.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has met Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh for talks in Istanbul today.

During the meeting, the pair discussed efforts to reach a ceasefire and deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza, state broadcaster TRT says.

The meeting took place at the Dolmabahce Palace.

The Palestinian health ministry reported earlier on an Israeli raid in the occupied West Bank (see post at 12.10pm).

The raid, which began on Friday, took place in the Nur Shams area of Tulkarm

Now, the IDF has said its forces killed 10 militants in the camp and the surrounding areas since it began its raid.

In a statement, it said the Israel army and the country's border police arrested eight Palestinian suspects from the area.

Nine of its officers and soldiers have been injured during the ongoing raid, it said.

According to the Palestinian health ministry, only four Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire in camp since Friday.

The two day raid appears to be one of the largest that has taken place at Tulkarem's refugee camp since the Israel-Hamas war began.

The Palestinian Authority will reconsider bilateral relations with the US after Washington vetoed a motion to make Palestine a full UN member, President Mahmoud Abbas has told WAFA news agency.

The move by the US yesterday essentially denied Palestine's recognition as a state in the eyes of the UN.

A spokesman for the US state department had described the motion as "premature".

"Specifically, there are unresolved questions as to whether the applicant can meet criteria to be considered as a state," he added.

Earlier today, China's foreign minister Wang Yi said efforts to admit a Palestinian state into the UN were a move to "rectify a prolonged injustice", according to state media Xinhua.

Over in the US, one of California's most prestigious universities has announced it will have no outside speakers after cancelling a traditional student's farewell speech over security concerns.

The University of Southern California is due to hold its annual commencement ceremony - which honours outgoing students - next month.

Controversy has surrounded the event since the university moved to cancel a valedictory speech from a Muslim student, Asna Tabassum, earlier this week.

USC head Andrew Guzman said that decision was made to protect campus security, but Ms Tabassum says the university is "caving to fear and rewarding hatred", which she says is directed by "anti-Muslim and anti-Palestinian voices".

The valedictorian - the student chosen to give the speech - is typically the highest-achieving student from those set to graduate from the university.

The Council on American Islamic Relations advocacy group and anti-war group Jewish Voice for Peace supported Ms Tabassum.

On Thursday, about 500 demonstrators marched at the USC campus in her support.

USC's ceremony, scheduled for 10 May, will honour a class of 19,000 graduates and is expected to draw 65,000 people to the downtown Los Angeles campus.

Tensions have risen at universities across the US since the war in Gaza began.

Two days ago, more than 100 pro-Palestinian protesters were arrested at Columbia University in New York after its president authorised police to clear an encampment set up by students demonstrating against Israel's actions in Gaza.

Those protests continued for a third successive day yesterday.

The attack on Iran was believed to have targeted the area of the city of Isfahan and are thought to have been from Israel.

New satellite images show two potential sites of the attack - Isfahan Airport andShahid Vatanpour army air base.

The images do not appear to show any obvious damage.

The Middle East appears to have stepped back from the brink after fears of escalation between Iran and Israel.

But analysts believe the rules in the region have now changed.

While the two countries have fought each other in the shadows for years, some believe something fundamental has shifted the dynamic.

Sky's international affairs editor Dominic Waghorn reports...

As we reported earlier, an Israeli air strike in the southern Gazan city of Rafah has killed nine people, according to authorities (see our 11.22am post).

Here is a look at the latest images from the city after the attack yesterday.